Great movie, isn't it? I think so. Our future, though, isn't nearly as exciting.
People are talking about going back to school in the fall, and some states are already opening up. It's like, have you ever even heard of a pandemic?
From everything to the plague to the Spanish Flu of 1918-19, pandemics have been longer than two months. Like, what? It's a pandemic; these things last forever. The Spanish Flu had like 3 different waves where the virus actually got stronger. Why do you think coronavirus is any different?
Most health experts are saying that this pandemic's going to last well into 2021, if not until 2022, when it might just start circulating like the flu.
The people at STAT have three potential futures for us.
One: After the big surge of cases that we're currently in, we're going to have "ripples" of cases for years to come, as seen in the diagram to the right. The high points will most likely coincide with flu season, while the low points are due to the virus's decreased ability to survive in hot, humid weather. Until enough people become immune or a vaccine is invented, this pattern will most likely continue.
Two: STAT calls this one the "History Redux," and for good reason too. Most previous pandemics have followed this pattern, below. Currently, we're in the first big hill. Once we seem to be in the clear, social distancing will relax, as it's already doing. In this time, the coronavirus would spread exponentially, bringing us to the bigger hill in the fall. Especially if the flu season is bad, health systems around the world could be completely overwhelmed.
And Three: We continue to have similar-sized peaks for the next few years. As guidelines relax, more cases are recorded, and guidelines tighten again until the case count decreases. This pattern, combining with coronaviruses like the cold's and flu's ability to circulate and mutate, could give rise to the pattern shown below.
Fun reality, isn't it.